CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 03/01 - 06Z SUN 04/01 2004
ISSUED: 02/01 19:54Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential remaining dominant over the Mediterranean regions ... with relatively intense vort max progged to migrate eastwards across Tunesia and the Libyan N coast into the S-central Mediterranean Sea during Saturday night. Low-level cyclone over the central Mediterranean Sea will be intermittently reinforced a bit in response to the upper vort max ... and move into Greece/Aegean by Sunday 06Z.

DISCUSSION

...Mediterranean...
It looks that strong DCVA will overspread the extreme SE portions of the forecast area late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. It does not look that air mass will undergo much of a change with respect to the thermodynamics ... and CAPE should be quite meager. However ... kinematic fields will strengthen ... and deep-layer shear on the order of 70 knots could be present early Sunday morning over the S-central Mediterranean Sea ... the strongest shear probably being just outside the forecast area. However ... a few severe wind gusts could still occur ... If supercells/splitting storms develop ... tornado threat would be somewhat enhanced given low LCL heights and increasing 850 hPa flow (20 to 30 knots by Sunday 06 Z). Allover setup appears to be somewhat marginal ... and a SLGT does not appear to be warranted ATTM though an upgrade may be necessary tomorrow.

Shallow Cumulonimbi will likely be present across much of the Mediterranean Sea ... which will likely produce occasional lightning strikes. Organized severe-weather threat is negligible with this activity.

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